What message does this send to the world?

They are the world’s most powerful autocrats. In 2019, Chinese president Xi Jinping described his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as his “best friend”. Last year, when the two leaders met just before the Ukraine invasion, they sealed a “no limits” partnership, which caused concern to the West. Now as the war enters a new phase and ties between Washington and Beijing hit a low over Taiwan, Xi is expected to visit Russia. The Chinese premier is likely to be in Moscow on an invitation from Putin as the conflict, which started on 24 February 2022, completes a year.

What do we know about the visit?

It is the Russian foreign ministry that announced Xi’s Moscow visit on Monday. While the dates are not confirmed, the two leaders are expected to meet sometime in February.

“This year, Russia and China will join efforts to enhance and promote further bilateral relations between the two governments. As you know, Russian president Vladimir Putin has invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping on an official visit this spring,” the Russian foreign ministry said, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS.

It report said that the Kremlin will “proceed from the understanding that this [Xi’s visit] will be the central event in the bilateral agenda for 2023”.

The two countries will look to strengthen their economic and financial relations and expand energy cooperation. The ministry said that the two nations are coordinating foreign policy courses “to maintain global peace and stability, to settle regional conflicts, to overcome confrontation and promote a unifying agenda”.

Xi’s top foreign policy aide Wang Yi is scheduled to visit Moscow in February to make preparations for the Chinese leader’s first state visit since 2019, Russia’s Vedomosti newspaper reported. However, China has yet to confirm the visit.

In December, after a video summit between the two leaders, Putin said he was expecting Xi to make a state visit. But even then an official Chinese readout did not mention it.

Also read: New friendship with China is Moscow’s biggest prize of the year

What does the visit mean for the war?

There’s increased support for Ukraine from the West – with battle tanks and military aid – despite fears of escalation. Russia could face further losses. But Beijing is looking at this differently.

According to a report in South China Morning Post, Chinese observers believe that the fight between Russia and the West could drag on for months, if not years. If the US gets tied up in the conflict, it would only benefit Beijing. “For China, a protracted conflict would prove a useful distraction from Washington’s great power rivalry with Beijing,” reporter and former diplomat Shi Jiangtao writes. It’s why the Communist nation is doubling down on its bet that Putin can sustain the war.

China has not gone all out and supported Russia in the war but Xi’s possible visit could change perceptions. AFP

Xi’s visit would send a message of defiance to the US, which has been pressuring China to distance itself from Russia. “If it goes ahead, Xi’s trip will be a milestone event in China’s diplomacy with far-reaching implications for its global standing, and its ties with the US and other major powers. Such a visit would underline Beijing’s strategic choice to side with Moscow in their geostrategic rivalry with the West and send a message of defiance,” says Shi Jiangtao.

Of course, the biggest beneficiary would be Russia. For Putin, the support from powerful China as his country continues to be isolated provides a big boost. Bejing has been largely neutral in the war but the visit will be seen used by the Kremlin to tomtom that Xi has finally picked a side.

How will this impact US-China ties?

The tensions between the two nations are rising with Washington’s growing support to Taiwan. A US air force commander said that a military conflict with mainland China could come as early as 2025. The claim has been supported by a top Republican in the US Congress.

However, this is not a view supported by Washington. US State Secretary Antony Blinken will visit China on 5 and 6 February. According to reports, Blinken’s agenda is expected to include the Ukraine war, China’s nuclear arsenal and US citizens held in China.

Analysts say that Blinken’s visit will not fix differences between US and China but there could be progress on the Russia front.

“It’s crucial for President Xi to brief President [Vladimir] Putin about all of this [Blinken’s visit] so that he doesn’t get the wrong impression that the US is manufacturing another cold war-like split between their countries [China and Russia],” Andrew Korybko, a political analyst at the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia, told South China Morning Post.

Also read: Explained: After tanks, why does Ukraine want fighter jets? Why is the West divided over it?

How has China responded to the war so far?

Xi met Putin just days before the invasion and according to a Chinese official the Russian leader did not tell him “the truth”. Beijing was caught off guard by Moscow’s decision to attack Ukraine.

Yet China has been tactical in its response to the war. It has refrained from calling it an invasion, it has opposed West-imposed sanctions and sided with Russia or abstained from voting on matters related to the conflict at the United Nations.

Xi has in the past offered to play peacemaker and has spoken against the use of nuclear weapons.

Russian president Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping via a video link at the Kremlin in Moscow on 30 December. The Russian leader told his Chinese counterpart that he was keen to ramp up military cooperation and hailed the efforts by the two countries to counter Western influence. AFP

In December, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi defended the country’s stance on the Ukraine war and hinted that it would deepen ties with Russia in the coming months. Now Xi’s possible visit reiterates that position. He added said that China would “deepen strategic mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation” with Russia.

But there have been limits to the partnership: China has not provided direct material support which could provoke the West. But a recent report suggests that the US has evidence that some of its state-owned firms could be helping Russia in the war.

According to a report from Bloomberg News, the support from Chinese companies consists of non-lethal military and economic assistance that stops short of a wholesale evasion of the sanctions regime the US and its allies imposed on Russia after the invasion.

Beijing has rubbished the report. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday that the country “would never add fuel to the fire, still less exploit the crisis”.

She said that the US was the one who started the Ukraine crisis. “Rather than reflecting on its own acts, the US has been sowing paranoia and pointing fingers at China. We reject such groundless blackmail, and would not sit by and watch the US harm the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” Mao Ning said, according to Bloomberg.

But much before the war, the two countries have forged a partnership over the years. China is Russia’s largest trade partner for more than a decade. Moscow is China’s largest oil supplier, second largest supplier of pipeline gas and fourth largest provider of liquefied natural gas.

So while Xi’s visit is bound to make the world worry, the two leaders have a lot more on the agenda.

With inputs from agencies

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