Is Asean on the cusp of fulfilling its long-held promise?

GENEVA – In the more than half century since its founding, Asean has historically been a relatively ‘quiet’ trading bloc. Signs suggest, however, that this is changing.

Rarely was there a month during 2022 when Asean wasn’t in the news, and it was a year in which it hosted not one but three global leadership summits – the Asean/East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, the G20 Summit in Bali and Apec Economic Leaders Meeting in Bangkok.

Growth – leveraging existing and new advantages

Economically, Asean is one of the few bright spots as the global economy continues to stall.

Its economies enjoyed strong growth during 2022 on the back of a post-Covid-19 surge in activity, and although this is slowing and the global chill will have some effect, overall growth forecasts for 2023 are pegged at 4.4 per cent for the Asean-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).

Collectively, Asean is a huge bloc in terms of physical landmass, natural resources and population size (approximately 680 million). Its young population is increasingly educated and affluent, and with an entrepreneurial mindset and growing resources to invest in business, they are creating a strong regional market, which is helping to offset the dampening effects of the global slowdown.

Tourism is another boon, and as international travel recovers during 2023, the region – and particularly its perennially popular destinations like Thailand – should enjoy continued growth in arrivals.

As a trading bloc Asean is one of the fastest growing (accounting for approximately 8 per cent of global exports), and through years of making trading deals, now sits at the heart of two major free trade areas (FTAs). These are the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which includes Latin American countries like Chile and Mexico, as well as Canada and several other Asian nations.

Sustainability – from laggard to leader

One of the greatest challenges facing the region is climate change. For Indonesia and the Philippines, with their large archipelagos and many island dwellers, the prospect of rising sea levels is devastating.

Already several of Asean’s members states are suffering other climate-related changes, typically in the form of unseasonably heavy rains causing flooding, and this situation can only deteriorate.

One of the worst affected is Indonesia and its decision to take on the leadership of the Ocean 20 initiative underlines the rising level of engagement – and voice – that Asean countries want to have in the sustainability debate.

In 2021, the bloc launched its first State of Climate Change Report, which not only charts the changing outlook, but is designed to find ways in which the 10 members can collaborate to meet climate targets.

How to tackle its growing greenhouse gas emissions remains a central issue, but positively, nine member states have committed to net zero and the bloc has pledged to make 23 per cent of its primary energy renewable by 2025, with global solar powerhouse, Viet Nam leading the way in this respect.