Ex-US military specialist recommends new security strategy for Taiwan | Taiwan News

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Given the China threat, military expert Guermantes Lailari said Taiwan should release a declassified version of its security strategy, increase defense spending, and buy different kinds of weapons.

Speaking to Taiwan News, the retired United States Air Force political-military specialist and Taiwan Fellow said Taiwanese should be better informed and prepared for potential aggression from China.

When asked about the likely effects of China annexing Taiwan, Lailari said the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would seek to influence domestic politics to a greater extent than in Hong Kong.

“I think Hong Kong was a good example, but they didn’t do as bad as they wanted to, because they didn’t want to scare Taiwanese people too much,” Lailari said. “I think at least what happened to Hong Kong will happen to Taiwan, but maybe worse.”

Lailari added that after Taiwan, Japan has the most to fear from China. “If you ask a PRC (China) nationalist who they hate the most, it’s not the Americans, it’s the Japanese, but for some reason, because of World War II obviously, they hate them very much.”

Lailari also said that South Korea and the Philippines would have reason for concern following a Chinese annexation of Taiwan, given the confidence boost such a military success would provide. He said if the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) controlled Taiwan and its islands, it would be emboldened and be more aggressive. “

The PLA “would build up not only the current military bases that are in Taiwan, they would probably build nuclear submarine bases on the east coast of Taiwan where the waters are very deep” he said. “This would be a strategic threat to anyone trying to slow down or stop an expansion by the CCP.”

Commenting on the global economy, Lailari said the potential disruption of semiconductor manufacturing would be a global problem. “If Taiwan is taken over, many people predict an economic disaster for the world, not just the free world but the entire world.”

Lailari said because the U.S. had the “first island chain” of the Pacific under control of the then Japanese empire, “The United States helped the Nationalist forces during World War II fight against the Japanese.

“So, in a sense, historically, we owe an allegiance to Taiwan, because Chiang Kai-shek’s forces were able to keep the Japanese pinned down in China.” Lailari said that this allowed the U.S. to focus its efforts on Europe, before returning to the conflict in Asia.

Returning to the present day, Lailari noted the Taiwan Policy Act, U.S. legislation that allocates US$6.5 billion (NT$197 billion) of foreign military assistance to Taiwan, along with resources for improved cultural and scholarly exchanges. He said the act reaffirms Taiwan is a vital interest to the U.S., and that it reengages U.S. support for Taiwan.

Lailari has prepared two case studies of what a Chinese annexation of Taiwan might look like in practice, offering national security advice for Taiwan in reference to U.S. and Israeli policies. He said it is likely the major political parties in Taiwan are already drafting an updated national security strategy, and recommended that Taiwan consider publishing an unclassified version of this document.

This “would inform the people of Taiwan, and their allies and adversaries, how they view the world and how the government views its future,” he said.

While some parts of the strategy would necessarily remain classified, Lailari said the document would be forthcoming, reference Japan, Germany, and France, and their national security strategies. “They are all in reaction to what the PRC is doing in the world,” Lailari said.

Lailari said his analysis shows the most likely scenario for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be what he calls a “coercive quarantine.” However, he said that Taiwan should prepare for all invasion scenarios.

He recommended Taiwan purchases “as many anti-ship missiles as there are in the world,” noting that global demand for these kinds of munitions is low. “By buying as many anti-ship missiles as there are in the world and dispersing them around the island of Taiwan as well as Matsu, Kinmen, Penghu, (Taiwan) would be able to strike any invading force with vigor and would help deter any kind of invasion.”

He also said that Taiwan’s military leaders’ strategy of buying up anti-tank missiles is misguided, due to the heavy demand for these weapons in Ukraine severely restricting availability.

“If I was to advise the government I would say (they) need to build their own anti-tank, anti-armor weapons,” Lailari said. “In other words, the weapons you can’t get, you have to make yourself.” He said greater commitment to national defense from the Taiwan government in these areas would likely result in greater funding from the U.S.

“Politics should be subservient to national existence”

Lailari said the government needs to take the lead and provide Taiwanese with a way to do something in case there is a conflict. He added they should be prepared for a large-scale armed conflict (teaching first aid, for example). This would also be useful in other emergency situations such as earthquakes, flooding, and other civil emergencies.

“NGOs are sensing the people of Taiwan being concerned about these things, and I think it’s a leadership issue, and the government should take the lead” he said.

He also recommended that Taiwan use foreign reserves to increase its military budget in line with Israel. He said the money Taiwan already has could be used to make this increase without taxing people. Doing so would increase Taiwan’s defense spending from 2.4% of its GDP to 5%.

Lailari argues that “politics should be subservient to national existence,” adding that it’s more important the country survives rather than worrying about the politics surrounding the decision-making that allows it to.

“That might mean that in one or two terms the DPP is out of office, but that’s politics and part of a democracy” he said. “To know that you’ve saved your country and deterred an enemy from invading, to me, is more important than getting re-elected.”