Commentary: Asia-Pacific’s submarine aspirations make regional waters more congested – and riskier

It’s not just a numbers game; these regional naval powers also have inducted larger, quieter boats with better long-range striking capabilities.

And in late 2021, much attention has been fixated on Australia’s plan for nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS deal with the United Kingdom and United States.

SUBMARINE ASPIRATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam already have submarine programmes. Over the recent years, new submarine aspirants have also emerged in Southeast Asia.

The Philippines and Thailand have long had submarine plans, so it comes as no surprise. The Philippines’ programme is a victim of its economic difficulties – it has been shunted to the back of the queue as priority goes to acquiring more surface assets such as corvettes and offshore patrol vessels to enhance its South China Sea presence.

Thailand’s programme has also stalled over disagreements with the Chinese shipbuilder over the engine. The decision on whether to accept the Chinese-made engine in place of the originally planned-for German diesel engine has been deferred to June.

This adds to a programme long troubled by domestic political intrigue, especially the allegations about irregularities in the contract, and earlier COVID-19 economic pressures compelling the navy to dial down on the submarine procurement budget.