Europe’s green path lurches from crisis to crisis

Europe’s path to a cleaner future has lurched through recent crises.

For five years after the Paris Accord, where UN members pledged to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), global investment in renewables was flat at $1 trillion a year, said the IEA.

In 2020, during the pandemic recession, Europe launched a $730bn stimulus package, the Recovery and Resilience Fund, assigning 37 percent of it to renewable generating capacity. This was to help realise a goal to generate 32 percent of total final energy consumption from renewables by 2030.

In 2021, amid reports of accelerating climate change, the EU decided to generate 40 percent of total final energy consumption from renewables by 2030.

Three months after Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, the EU raised that goal to 45 percent.

Total final energy consumption includes electricity production, transport, heating and cooling. Meeting it requires producing at least 69 percent of electricity from renewables.

E3G and Ember believe some member states’ ambitions are already outpacing that goal. Portugal, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands plan to produce all their electricity from renewables by 2030, and Germany and Spain plan to produce about 80 percent by then.

In July, the European Commission asked countries to voluntarily cut down on gas use by 15 percent. Most countries have achieved that, say analysts.

“Recession is going to fix our emissions for us,” says Stern, at least in the short term. It demonstrably did so during the COVID-19 pandemic, when lockdowns led to a 4 percent drop in energy use and a 5.8 percent drop – the largest ever – in emissions.

“People are saying [the energy crisis] is a good thing, because we have to cut our emissions anyway.”

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