Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE FLASH, ELEMENTAL, and THE BLACKENING Debut for Father’s Day and Juneteenth Frame
Written by on June 15, 2023
After strong performances by Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts to kick off June, the coming holiday frame sees a trio of wide releases hoping to counter-program and take advantage of a double holiday weekend.
The Flash
Warner Bros. Pictures
June 16, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $60M-$80M
PROS:
- Bringing together DC characters old and new, The Flash is aiming to garner appeal among young Millennials and Gen Zers who have grown up with the modern DC Extended Universe alongside Generation Xers and older Millennials excited for the return of Michael Keaton as Batman.
- Early fan shows and premium screen formats have sold fairly well in the pre-sales window, and walk-up business could be notable if positive word of mouth captures general audience appeal. An expected 60% or more of opening weekend moviegoers are expected to be male—which could dovetail nicely with Father’s Day on Sunday.
CONS:
- Pre-sales trends have generally disappointed outside the initial fan-rush of previews, and they haven’t yet rebounded. Despite claiming a significant advantage over Black Adam in recent weeks, samples for The Flash‘s Thursday shows indicate that sales have shrunk from 66% above Black Adam on June 8 to only 30% above entering June 14.
- Despite industry buzz around what was once widely viewed as a contender to be among the year’s top films, general audience interest in DC has waned as the franchise has stumbled to form broader storytelling cohesion. Ezra Miller’s entanglement in real-life controversies also seems to have some impact, particularly on social media, where sentiment and enthusiasm for the film has stalled. Miller’s absence from press events for the film, minus a few exceptions, could also tamp down pre-release buzz.
Elemental
Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar
June 16, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $31M-$41M
PROS:
- Given the glut of action-heavy films based on pre-existing IP in theaters this weekend, Elemental and its return to original storytelling for Pixar could be an attractive option for families with young ones.
- Although an initial wave of middling reviews created concern, the film’s current 81% approval rating from a total of 48 critics on Rotten Tomatoes renews hope that the film may generate staying power well beyond this weekend. Also helpful for Pixar on that front: relatively light competition from other animated films until later in the summer, with the next major entry being the August 2 release of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.
CONS:
- With The Little Mermaid still going strong at the box office after a $23.2 million third frame, Disney will be competing with itself for female moviegoers of all ages. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse also remains a formidable opponent as an animated box office hit, albeit one driven more by young male audiences.
- As other animation brands such as Illumination and Sony have become more popular among young moviegoers—and as Disney recovers from its pandemic-era straight-to-streaming strategy for many family movies, including three recent Pixar releases (Turning Red, Luca, Soul)—Elemental may not have the kind of robust upfront audience interest garnered by earlier Pixar films based on original IP.
The Blackening
Lionsgate
June 16, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M
PROS:
- Horror-comedy is a genre under-represented in the summer market right now. With horror film The Boogeyman having opened on the low end of expectations early this month, audiences could be hungry for a scare.
- Marketing and release date synergy with this Monday’s Juneteenth holiday could help in bringing in Black audiences.
CONS:
- With a projected 1,800 location count and no clear indication of word of mouth at this stage, expectations are all over the map.
Current projection ranges call for a 17% to 26% percent increase from last weekend’s $163.5 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 18 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| The Flash | Warner Bros. Pictures | $69,000,000 | $69,000,000 | ~4,100 | NEW |
| Elemental | Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar | $33,300,000 | $33,300,000 | ~3,900 | NEW |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $31,600,000 | $283,100,000 | ~3,900 | -43% |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | Paramount Pictures | $22,800,000 | $102,200,000 | ~3,678 | -63% |
| The Little Mermaid (2023) | Walt Disney Pictures | $18,200,000 | $261,100,000 | ~3,500 | -21% |
| The Blackening | Lionsgate | $8,300,000 | $8,300,000 | ~1,800 | NEW |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | Disney / Marvel Studios | $5,400,000 | $344,800,000 | ~2,300 | -25% |
| The Boogeyman | 20th Century Studios | $4,200,000 | $33,100,000 | ~2,400 | -41% |
| Fast X | Universal Pictures | $3,600,000 | $144,100,000 | ~1,700 | -32% |
| Asteroid City | Focus Features | $750,000 | $750,000 | 6 | NEW |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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