The new shady area ‘s the normalized histogram off month-to-month imply P

These types of abilities advise that the latest robust dating between regular differences in exotic SST gradients and you may ITCZ venue found in the fresh observations are along with included in coupled climate designs

Histograms of P_Cent in the CMIP3 PI models and observations. _Cent and the seasonal range (defined as twice the amplitude of the annual harmonic) of P_Cent is given by the dashed lines attaching the filled dots (representing the climatological northernmost and southernmost extent). The annual average for each model is also shown with the shaded diamond. The models are organized on the y axis and color coded by annual average P_Cent with the same color bar used in Fig. 6. Observations are given by the thick magenta line and the CMIP3 ensemble average is shown in the thick black lines. The vertical dashed black lines are the ensemble average annual mean, northernmost, and southernmost extent P_Penny.

These performance recommend that this new robust dating ranging from regular differences in exotic SST gradients and ITCZ venue present in the fresh findings is and additionally found in coupled environment designs

Histograms of P_Cent in the CMIP3 PI models and observations. _Cent and the seasonal range (defined as twice the amplitude of the annual harmonic) of P_Cent is given by the dashed lines attaching the filled dots (representing the climatological northernmost and southernmost extent). The annual average for each model is also shown with the shaded diamond. The models are organized on the y axis and color coded by annual average P_Penny with the same color bar used in Fig. 6. Observations are given by the thick magenta line and the CMIP3 ensemble average is shown in the thick black lines. The vertical dashed black lines are the ensemble average annual mean, northernmost, and southernmost extent P_Penny.

The seasonal amplitude of AHT_EQ is 2.5 ± 0.3 PW in the models and is larger but within the error bars of that found in the observations (2.2 PW; Table 2). As a consequence, the seasonal amplitude in P_Penny of 6.6° ± 0.8° is also larger than that in the observations (6.3°). The amplitude and phasing of ?SWABS?, ?OLR?, and ?STOR_ATMOS? closely match those found in the observations (cf. the shaded regions and the solid lines in Fig. 4). In contrast, ?SHF? in the models lags ?SHF? in the observations by 16 days on average. As a result, the net hemispheric contrast in energy input to the atmospheric column is more in phase with the insolation in the models than in the observations and AHT_EQ lags the insolation by 25 days in the models as compared to 46 days in the observations. This offers http://www.datingranking.net/milf-dating/ a partial explanation for why the seasonal migration of P_Cent lags that in AHT_EQ in the models (by 29 days) but not in the observations. However, the root cause of this discrepancy and its relationship to the seasonal migration of the Hadley circulation is unclear to us.

The seasonal amplitude and the regression coefficient (given by the slope of the line) between P_Penny and ?SST for each CMIP3 ensemble member is shown in the lower panel of Fig. 6 along with the observations. The ensemble average of the seasonal amplitude of ?SST is 2.0 ± 0.3 K and compares well with that in the observations (1.8 K). Seasonal variations in ?SST are highly correlated with seasonal variations in P_Cent in all models with an ensemble mean correlation coefficient of 0.97. The regression coefficient between P_Cent and ?SST is 3.7° K ?1 in the CMIP3 ensemble average and compares well with that in the observations (3.3° K ?1 ) but varies significantly (standard deviation of 0.7° K ?1 ) between models (Table 2).