Poland says the missile strike on its land appears to be an accident by Ukraine

KYIV, Ukraine — Poland’s president said Wednesday that it appears a missile that landed just inside the country’s border was from Ukraine in what he called an “unfortunate accident.”

“We have no evidence at the moment that it was a rocket launched by Russian forces,” President Andrzej Duda said. “However, there are many indications that it was a missile that was used by Ukraine’s anti-missile defense.”

Two Polish citizens were killed Tuesday when the missile came crashing down in a rural village in eastern Poland, just a few miles from the western border of Ukraine. This happened amid a Russian barrage of missiles fired at cities across Ukraine, with Ukraine responding with its air defense systems.

NATO members discussed the issue in Brussels, and the secretary general of alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said a preliminary analysis pointed to a Ukrainian air defense missile that had been fired at an incoming Russian missile.

“Let me be clear: this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.

In Russia, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Russian specialists had studied images of the explosion in Poland and concluded rocket fragments were from an S-300 surface-to-air missile system fired by Ukraine.

Konashenkov insisted Russia carried out a wave of what he called “precision” strikes on Ukrainian military and energy infrastructure. He said this included attacks in western Ukraine, but all were 20 miles or more away from Poland’s border.

At the G20 summit in Indonesia, President Biden has said the missile was “probably” not fired from Russia. Still, he supported an investigation with Poland and condemned Moscow’s latest attacks on Ukraine.

In Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy spoke in a brief video on Wednesday morning, wishing citizens a “normal day” after Tuesday’s missile barrage. He didn’t say whose missile may have exploded in Poland.

This was in contrast to his initial comment Tuesday night, when he said, “This is a Russian missile attack on collective security.”

One of his top advisers, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that regardless of whose missile landed in Poland, Russia was responsible.

“Only Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine and massive missile strikes,” he tweeted. “Only Russia is behind the rapidly growing risks for the border countries. No need to look for excuses and postpone key decisions. Time for Europe to close the sky over Ukraine.”

Russia fired a barrage of around 100 missiles into Ukraine in just a couple hours
Tuesday afternoon’s missiles targeted the Ukraine’s electricity grid as it’s been doing for the past month.

Ukraine says it shot down about 70 of the incoming missiles, in line with other recent attacks.

But Ukraine’s energy systems, which already include daily power outages in many parts of the country, suffered another heavy blow.

In the capital Kyiv, the largest city with around 3 million residents, about half the homes and businesses were without power, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Other large cities were in similar condition, if not worse.

One woman was killed in Kyiv when a missile slammed into her apartment in a residential area near the center of the city. There were no obvious military, government or energy facilities in the area.

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It was not clear why the building would have been targeted, or if perhaps a Ukrainian air defense system hit a Russian missile, with the remnants of that Russian missile hitting the building.

Standing in the darkness outside the apartment building, Vladimir Yanachuk said he expected many more Russian attacks, but this was not weakening the resolve of Ukrainians.

“We are not afraid about this. Ukrainians are not afraid about this,” he said. “Winter will be hard. But this winter will be hard not only for Ukrainians, but for Russian soldiers too.”

As he was speaking in the street, the lights suddenly came back on in surrounding apartment buildings, though not the one that had been hit.

Ukrainians have been rapidly repairing the power outages inflicted by the Russians, but the sheer number of attacks has strained the country’s capacity to keep up.

Russia has damaged around 40% of the country’s electricity system, according to Ukrainian officials.

Western leaders on high alert after explosion in Poland kills 2

Top Ukrainian leaders are accusing Russia of launching the attack as leaders in the U.S. and Europe remain cautious.

President Joe Biden said Tuesday’s deadly missile strike on Poland’s territory likely wasn’t fired from Russia, as world leaders on three continents raced to find answers about an event that could prove one of the most significant moments in Russia’s nine-month war on Ukraine.

“We are going to figure out exactly what happened,” Biden told reporters after an emergency meeting with other G-7 and NATO leaders on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. He added that “preliminary information” suggests it was “unlikely” that the missile — which landed along Poland’s border with Ukraine — was fired from Russia. Ukrainian officials blamed Moscow for the attack, which killed at least two people.

As details remained scarce, officials were cautious in their statements given the sky-high stakes. A Russian strike on NATO territory could trigger a military response from the U.S. and other NATO members. The hours following the first reports brought a flurry of phone calls between world leaders and emergency meetings over how to respond.

A NATO spokesperson said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will chair an emergency meeting of alliance ambassadors Wednesday in Brussels to discuss the incident.

Poland’s foreign ministry said earlier Tuesday it had confirmed that the missile was Russian-made and that it had summoned the Russian ambassador “with a demand for an immediate detailed explanation,” according to a statement.

Polish President Andrzej Duda, who spoke with Biden, was less definitive, saying that the missile was “probably” Russian-made, cautioning: “We do not have conclusive evidence at this time of who launched the missile.” Ukraine’s military also uses some Russian-manufactured missiles.

Moscow and Kyiv quickly pointed fingers at each other.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a video message, said “Russian missiles hit Poland,” calling it an “attack on collective security” and “a very significant escalation.” Russia’s Foreign Ministry denied the charge, tweeting “Russian hardware has launched NO strikes at the area.”

Meanwhile, speculation swirled on social media — partly fueled by pro-Russian bots — that a Ukrainian air-defense missile launched to counter Russian weapons is what crashed in Poland. But Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba railed against that charge, calling it a “conspiracy theory” in a tweet.

The explosion in Poland came amid a barrage of Russian missiles fired at Ukrainian energy and electricity facilities across the country this week, plunging the capital of Kyiv and the recently recaptured city of Kherson into darkness. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted that 73 out of over 90 cruise missiles launched by Russia were shot down over the course of the evening, along with 10 more suicide drones.

“They’ve been totally unconscionable with what they’re doing,” Biden said after the emergency meeting in Bali. “And at a moment when the world is coming together at the G-20 to urge de-escalation, Russia continues to escalate in Ukraine.”

Senior U.S. officials have for more than a month discussed the possibility that the war in Ukraine would spill over into neighboring countries. Those officials, in coordination with European leaders, have conducted military planning exercises to game out such a scenario, according to a readout of a U.S. meeting with NATO officials in October obtained by POLITICO. The Pentagon did not immediately comment on the readout.

The next few hours and days after the initial report of the strike on Poland will be critical, as NATO members anxiously await the cause of the explosion. A mistake by Ukraine could be forgiven, experts say, but even an errant strike by Russia could prompt a more forceful response by officials throughout the alliance.

In Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said after an emergency cabinet meeting that the country had decided to “raise the combat readiness of selected branches of the Polish Armed Forces, with particular emphasis on airspace monitoring.”

Soon after the first reports on Tuesday, Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said that if Moscow intentionally struck territory in Poland, it could lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the NATO charter. That provision calls for other NATO member-states to contribute to the response, including using military force, if one member is attacked.

“We’re drilling down to find out what were the circumstances of it. It’s obviously very important to understand — was it a mistake, was it an overflight, was it intentional. I hope that it was not intentional,” Menendez said in an interview.

“I hope that the Russians apologize quickly for the loss of life and express that it wasn’t intentional. Obviously, if it was intentional, that has all kinds of consequences to it,” he added. “It’s definitely an enlargement of the conflict and of course it brings into question Article 5.”

At the Pentagon, Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder was asked about the United States’ security commitments. “We’ve been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory,” he said.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a top Biden ally, said media reports of the explosion were announced at the end of Senate Democrats’ weekly lunch on Tuesday, calling it a “stunning” development.

“I think it’s critical that the Russians promptly recognize this was a tragic mistake, apologize for it and offer compensation or this is going to quickly become a challenging issue,” Coons added.

Late Tuesday, Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), co-chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group, issued a statement reaffirming support for Poland and NATO allies.

European officials are also expressing their concern, and are blaming the Russians. “It is appalling to see a desperate regime attacking critical infrastructure of Ukraine and hitting allied territory with victims,” said a senior European diplomat who asked to be anonymous to discuss a fluid situation. “If confirmed, this represents another level of escalatory move by Russia against NATO. Poland is a very dear ally. NATO solidarity and support for Poland is ironclad.”

Since before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Biden has been adamant that U.S. troops will not fight in any conflict in Ukrainian territory. He has also held back on providing certain types of weapons to the Ukrainians out of concern that they could be used to strike inside Russian territory and widen the war. Biden and other NATO leaders have repeatedly warned Russia that it must not target countries in the military alliance, and to date the Kremlin has been cautious about avoiding such direct conflict.

The attacks come a day before the next virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a collection of 50 countries that gather monthly to plan next steps for arming and supporting Ukraine.

The Biden administration Tuesday asked Congress for $37.7 billion in Ukraine funding as part of a supplemental package, with $21.7 billion of that going directly to arms for Kyiv and to restock U.S. warehouses after eight months of shipping ammunition and equipment to Ukraine. Another $7 billion will be given to the White House to draw down existing U.S. weapons and ammunition stocks to send to Ukraine quickly.

Lara Seligman, Erin Banco, Meredith Lee Hill, Paul McLeary, Jan Cienski, Lili Bayer and Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.

Poland’s president says missile that killed two likely fired by Ukraine in defense against Russian attack

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending against a wave of Russian missile strikes, and that the incident appeared to be an accident.

“There is no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made S-300 rocket,” Duda said in a tweet Wednesday. He later told a press conference that there was a “high chance” it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and likely had fallen on Polish territory in “an accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles.

Duda’s comments were in line with those of two officials briefed on initial US assessments, who told CNN it appears the missile that originated in Ukraine, even though it was Russian-made.

CNN has not confirmed the type of missile that landed in Poland. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the nine-month conflict, including the S-300 surface to air missile system, which Kyiv has deployed as part of its air defenses. These older-generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.

The missile landed outside the rural Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west from the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, roughly the same time as Russia launched its biggest wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in more than a month.

The US officials said Wednesday that US assessment is what President Joe Biden appeared to be alluding to in earlier remarks when he said it was “unlikely” the missile originated in Russia. The intelligence assessments were discussed at an emergency meeting called by Biden on the margins of the G20 summit in Bali.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said there was no indication the incident was the result of a deliberate attack.

“Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by the Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks,” Stoltenberg told a press conference following an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels Wednesday.

“But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine’s fault,” he said. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”

Stoltenberg added that “we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO.”

A joint statement following the emergency meeting at the G20 was deliberately ambiguous when it came to the incident, putting far more focus on the dozens of strikes that happened in the hours before the missile crossed into Poland.

The Associated Press reported Wednesday that three US officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian strike. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, according to the AP.

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A spokesperson with the US National Security Council declined to comment on the AP report. “We have no comment and will not be confirming this report. As the President said today, we support Poland’s ongoing investigation to figure out exactly what happened,” the spokesperson said.

Earlier, Biden said preliminary information suggests it is unlikely the missile that landed in Poland was fired from Russia after consulting with allies at the G20 Summit in Bali.

“I don’t want to say that [it was fired from Russia] until we completely investigate,” Biden went on. “It’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see.”

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia doesn’t have “any relation” with the missile incident in Poland, and that some leaders have made statements without understanding “what actually happened.”

“The Poles had every opportunity to immediately report that they were talking about the wreckage of the S-300 air defense system missile. And, accordingly, all experts would have understood that this could not be a missile that had any relation with the Russian Armed Forces,” Peskov said during a regular call with journalists.

“We have witnessed another hysterical frenzied Russophobic reaction, which was not based on any real evidence.

“High-ranking leaders of different countries made statements without any idea about what actually happened.”

These older-generation weapons systems date back to the period when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.

In a statement to CNN on Wednesday, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not explicitly deny reports the missile originated in Ukraine but emphasized Russia’s responsibility for starting the war.

“There is only one logic to be followed,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, said. “The war was started and is being waged by Russia. Russia is massively attacking Ukraine with cruise missiles. Russia has turned the eastern part of the European continent into an unpredictable battlefield. Intent, means of execution, risks, escalation – it is all coming from Russia alone.”

“And there can be no other explanation for any missile incident here. So when an aggressor country launches a deliberate, massive missile strike against a large country on the European continent with its obsolete Soviet-era weapons (Kh-class missiles), tragedy sooner or later occurs on the territories of other states as well.”

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force said on national television Wednesday that it will “do everything” to facilitate a Polish investigation into the strike.

“What happened was the Air Defense Force repelling the air attack,” Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Air Force Command Ukraine, said. “What happened next – whether it was a Russian missile, or this was the wreckage of both rockets falling – this has to be inspected at the site. And that is what is happening right now.”

He added that “what happened yesterday is obviously the consequences of the war.”

Russia unleashed a huge barrage of 85 missiles on Ukraine Tuesday, predominantly targeting energy infrastructure. The bombardment caused city blackouts and knocked out power to 10 million people nationwide.

Zelensky later confirmed on Twitter that power had been restored to eight million consumers. “Supply to 8 million consumers has already been restored. Power engineers and repairmen will work all night. Thanks to everyone!”

Ukrainians across the country were expected to face further scheduled and unscheduled power cuts Wednesday.

“Massive missile strikes on November 15 on the energy infrastructure and cold weather further complicated the situation with the power system,” the state energy company NPC Ukrenergo said in a statement.

“Please prepare for longer power cuts: stock up on water, charge your devices and power banks in advance to stay in touch with your loved ones.”

NATO Allies address the explosion in the east of Poland

NATO ambassadors met on Wednesday (16 November 2022) to address the explosion yesterday in the east of Poland on the border with Ukraine, which took place as Russia launched a massive wave of rocket attacks across Ukraine.

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, briefed the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, and Poland’s Ambassador to NATO, Tomasz Szatkowski, updated Allies on the incident and the ongoing investigation.

“Since the start of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, NATO has increased vigilance across our eastern flank,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after the meeting. He stated that we need to await the outcome of the ongoing investigation, but “we have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack and we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO”. He added: “Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks. But let me clear: this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”

Allies made clear that they will continue to support Ukraine in its right to self-defence. They also offered their deepest condolences on the tragic loss of life and expressed their strong solidarity with Poland.

“We agreed that we need to stay vigilant, calm and closely coordinated. We will continue to consult and monitor the situation very closely. NATO stands united and we will always do what is necessary to protect and defend all Allies,” Mr Stoltenberg said.